7-Day Outlook: Wed. June 18 – Tue. June 24
Wednesday – Friday
Low pressure will track well north of the region in Québec today Meanwhile, another low-pressure area will track across the Great Lakes then just northwest of the region Thursday into Friday pulling a cold front across the Valley Thursday night into early Friday.
Conditions will become more unsettled today ahead of a cold front expected to arrive on Thursday. Showers are likely to redevelop this afternoon, mainly in the North Woods region. As the day progresses, atmospheric instability will increase, raising the chance for thunderstorms, especially in the North Woods. Some of these storms could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, but the overall risk of severe weather appears moderate and not widespread. There is a possibility that a few storms may continue into northeastern Aroostook County before weakening by the evening.
Warm and very humid air will continue to move north into the region on Thursday, brought in by high pressure off the East Coast. At the same time, a low-pressure system will approach from the Eastern Great Lakes, leading to a mostly cloudy day with increasing winds from the south, though some uncertainty the low’s exact track exists. Currently, most models track the just north of the region, which would keep the heaviest rain just outside of the SJV. However, if the system tracks more to the south, then heavier rains will be possible.
By late Thursday into Thursday night, most of the area will have a chance for thunderstorms as a cold front follows the low. While the potential for strong storms may be limited by maritime air, there is plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, so heavy rain is possible.
On Friday, the low will move off to the northeast. Northern areas may still see some lingering showers and mostly cloudy skies, while southern parts of the region should become partly cloudy. Cooler and clearer weather is expected Friday night. The summer solstice occurs at 10:42 pm EDT Fri. June 20.
Saturday – Tuesday
High pressure will begin to build from the central United States into the Southeast on Saturday, while the Valley remains under a west-northwest wind pattern on the northern side of the system. A weak disturbance may pass over the area on Saturday, bringing a few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Otherwise, Saturday looks partly sunny with seasonable temperatures.
By late in the weekend, the high-pressure system will strengthen along the East Coast, pushing a warm front north through the region. This may result in an isolated shower or two, but most locations will see partly sunny skies with a noticeable increase in humidity on Sunday.
High pressure will remain in control on Monday and Tuesday, leading to warmer and more humid conditions. High temperatures are expected to approach the low 80s both days. Some uncertainty exists regarding the reach of high-pressure northwards early next week and whether or not a weak front may be near the SJV. If so, then the proximity of the front would increase the chances for scattered showers.
7-Day Forecast Summary
Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Patchy fog. Lows around 60. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Juneteenth: Cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail in the afternoon. Highs in the mid-70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday Night: Showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail in the evening. Lows in the mid-50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. A 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Highs in the mid-70s.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Sunday: Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning. Highs around 80. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs around 80. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers. Lows in the mid-50s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Note: Computer model precision diminishes as the week progresses. Check The County.me or the National Weather Service Caribou, ME at for weather updates with more current information for the Saint John Valley.
The Week Ahead is the work of UMFK Professor Joseph E. Becker based on personal weather station data, various computer forecast models, and information that the National Weather Service, NOAA, and other weather resources provide.
